A BN defeat will hasten Taib’s retirement, say analysts

Tashny Sukumaran | April 14, 2011

Analysts say Taib's position now could be likened to the turbulent times once faced by former prime minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

KUALA LUMPUR: The outcome of the Sarawak state election will decide the departure date of long-serving Sarawak Chief Minister Abdul Taib Mahmud, analysts predict.

“If the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) were to lose more seats and lose its two-thirds majority in the State Legislative Assembly, then I believe the pressure on Taib would be immense to vacate the post that he had held for the last 30 years.

“This would ultimately result in him leaving sooner that the two-year period he has proposed,” political analyst James Chin told FMT.

However, he said, on the other hand, if the ruling coalition were to maintain its iron grip on the state, then Taib’s departure would be prolonged.

“But should the BN lose more than 15 seats, he will not stay on. I predict that he will leave within a year if this were to happen,” he added.

At the last state election in 2006, the BN managed to win 63 seats in the 71-seat State Legislative Assembly while DAP mustered only six seats, and Sarawak National Party (SNAP) and PKR won one seat each.
This was a far cry from the BN’s record at the 2001 Sarawak state election, which saw the ruling coalition win 60 out of the 62 seats in the assembly. The number of state seats was increased due to an electoral boundary redelineation exercise.

Another analyst, Ong Kian Ming, felt that internal dissent in the state BN would also play a role in deciding Taib’s departure date.

“Then there is another message from the opposition parties, which is to deny BN its two-thirds majority and (that too will see) Taib go,” he added.

Taib’s long tenure as chief minister coupled with cronyism in awarding state contracts and several other reasons had been the opposition’s rallying call in this election campaign. He has become a liability to the BN, and this had forced the ruling party to go on the defensive.

Taib has todate refused to commit to an exit timetable.
Yesterday during a ceramah, Taib lost his cool, saying, “I will retire in two or three years’ time”, calling his statement his “parting words”.

Abdullah Ahmad Badawi effect
Analysts say Taib’s position now could be likened to the turbulent times once faced by former prime minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

At the 2004 general election, Abdullah took the BN to a resounding victory winning nearly 90% of the seats in Parliament. But four years later, the BN under Abdullah’s leadership suffered a dismal performance for the first time in the country’s history, losing its two-thirds majority in Parliament.

BN also lost the state governments of Kedah, Penang, Perak and Selangor at the 2008 general election. The BN managed to get back Perak after three state assemblymen left the opposition to become BN-friendly assemblymen 11months later.

Soon after the devastating defeat, Abdullah came under massive pressure to retire and it paid off when he announced that he was passing the baton to his deputy, Najib Tun Razak, a year later.

However, analyst Jayum Jawan believes that the outcome of the election will have no bearing on Taib’s retirement date.

“He is arrogant. If the BN obtains a simple majority, that is enough for him. He will step down at his own pace,” he said.

He said Taib would not yield to pressure from the federal government but would move only if there was an internal revolt in his own Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB).
FMT